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Six months ago the heavens were falling as a wave of new Chinese brands approached our shores, with some predicting mass casualties of legacy carmakers.
Most of these new brands have arrived, including Deepal, Geely, Jac, XPeng and Zeekr, but have they wreaked the havoc that was predicted?
The answer is no. After several months on sale the initial take up has been modest at best.
Geely has sold about 500 of its cut-price EX5 electric mid-size SUV, which is a good start but not a knock-out blow to anyone.
Jac has had trouble getting its T9 ute on the ground in Australia, but its 650 sales this year aren’t worrying Ford or Toyota.
Deepal and XPeng don’t report sales figures yet, but anecdotal evidence suggests they haven’t hit critical mass.
Zeekr has moved around 270 examples of its X small electric SUV and luxurious 009 people mover combined.
It turns out that just because you are new and from China doesn’t mean you have a cheat code to success in Australia, as some may have thought.
As with every other new brand, it will take time and resources to build up a strong following.
Take a look at BYD, Chery, GWM and MG. These brands have had to grind it out over years to get a toehold in the local market.
GWM and MG have since turned that toehold into a sizeable chunk of market share, like a wily pub veteran pushing elbows out at the bar to settle in, with both now established top 10 selling brands Down Under.
It was a similar story for many of these brands that are now awash with sales.
Chery launched with its Omoda 5 small SUV and said it would sell 10,000 in the first year … it did not come close.
Fast forward a few years and Chery’s beefed-up line-up has accounted for more than 8000 sales through the first four months of this year and is on target to sell more than 20,000 vehicles in 2025. The cut-price Tiggo 4 small SUV leads the charge.
BYD has sold more than 11,000 cars through to the start of May this year, but when it first arrived its Atto 3 sold just OK. Its sales really turbocharged years later after it brought in its line-up of plug-in hybrids such as the Sealion 6 SUV, Shark 6 dual-cab ute and the mid-size Sealion 7 electric SUV.
Sales of the Sealion 6 and Shark 6 may fall back to earth now that tax incentives for plug-in hybrids have ended.
In April, the BYD Sealion 7 electric SUV displaced the Tesla Model Y as the bestselling EV that month, which is only the second time since August 2022 a Tesla hasn’t been the bestselling electric car in a month.
The MG ZS and GWM Haval Jolion are the second- and third-bestselling small SUVs, eclipsing rivals such as the Toyota Corolla Cross, Kia Seltos and Mitsubishi ASX.
A few more car brands are on the cusp of launching with GAC and Skywell committed to landing here, but as recent history has shown, it’ll be a tough slog to carve out a slice of the Aussie market.
But what about the effect on other brands?
The only new car brand gone from the local market recently is Citroën, which was on a steep decline long before we knew any of these newcomers existed.
Stellantis and its herd of car brands, such as Jeep and Alfa Romeo, look a little unsteady on their feet here, but this is not the result of new Chinese brands.
The big boys of the Australian car industry are still doing well.
Toyota’s market share has grown this year, compared to the first four months of 2024, as has Mazda, Hyundai and Kia’s. Ford’s is effectively even, too.
So your favourite car brand might be around for longer than was predicted not so long ago.
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