This cost Holden dearly and what the next Toyota RAV4, Toyota Corolla, Toyota HiLux, Ford Ranger and others need to heed as Holden's 'AU Falcon' turns 60

Holden’s first big blunder, launched 60 years ago, was serious enough to reverberate right through to the very end in 2020. And beyond.

It was a mistake that Ford mirrored with the infamous AU Falcon decades later.

A cautionary tale, then, for Toyota’s imminent next-generation RAV4, Corolla and HiLux, as well as highly-anticipated redesigns of traditional favourites like the Nissan Navara, Mitsubishi Pajero and the Ford Ranger.

The Holden in question, of course, is the 1965 HD series.

Only the fifth major rebody of the 1948 48-215 (FX) original, General Motors-Holden’s (GM-H) made the grave mistake of allowing the styling to fall out of step with consumer expectations.

This is a common pitfall by companies that believe that buyers will stick with a previously-successful product because of the badge alone. Through hubris, arrogance or plain ignorance, history is littered with such sales flops, from New Coke to Nokia’s response to Apple’s iPhone.

In GM-H’s case, the HD was the 1965 follow-up to what is widely regarded as the most beloved Holden ever, the EH of 1963.

1965 Holden HD Special station wagon.

The latter, with its attractive styling, compact packaging and powerful engines, really hit the sweet spot, shifting 250,000 units in its 18-month run, becoming the fastest-selling Australian car ever. GM-H had enjoyed 50 per cent market share up to that point – an unprecedented feat back then and now.

In fact, the EH itself narrowly avoided calamity, since it was actually a rushed clean-up job by GM in Detroit of an earlier Holden proposal that was, in a word, awful, as revealed by historian David Burrell in Shannon’s Retroauto series.

Plus, the initial Australian-penned HD proposal that never saw production, to replace the EH and known as the EF, looked all wrong.

1965 Holden HD Standard.

Panic set in at GM as a result and America took full control of Holden design, shaping what became the actual HD we saw in 1965. Basically, Australia was not trusted by head office. But, ultimately, not listened to either.

Considered avantgarde in its modernity, the American-styled HD should have succeeded. It was considerably larger, wider, roomier and more advanced than the elegant EH it replaced.

But Detroit’s designers did not understand Australians’ ultra-conservative tastes of the time – something that GM-H had hitherto helped foster – meaning that the 1965 Holden’s showy, pointy styling, bloated sides and excessive detailing seemed too flashy. Back then, most buyers wanted to fit in, not stand out.

While early sales actually exceeded the EH (in May alone, a record 19,000 were registered), interest tailed off drastically heading into 1966, leading the media to dub the HD as “Holden’s Disaster”. Essentially, consumers hated the styling.

The EH averaged 14,275 sales each month; the HD’s run-rate was 12,780, in a growing market. Total production was 178,927.

The knock-on effect proved catastrophically permanent for GM-H.

1965 Chrysler AP6 Valiant Regal V8.

Buyers looked increasingly to rivals. The XP Falcon won Wheels’ Car of the Year (COTY) award. As did Chrysler’s Valiant later on. And, crucially, the public opened its eyes to well-made and reliable alternatives from Japan, like Toyota’s Corona and Crown.

While the HD remained Australia’s bestseller, the competition pounced on GM-H’s misstep.

The toned-down HR facelift from April, 1966, reversed Holden’s slide, but sales would never hit the EH heights again, particularly after the handsome, “Mustang-bred” and COTY-winning XR Falcon of 1966 really kick-started Ford’s long ascension to the top.

1966 Holden HR Special.

GM-H remained number one until 1982, but its commanding market share decline commenced with the HD, and the Falcon finally outsold its Holden foe outright in 1977.

Ironically, the hubris that led GM-H to drop the ball with the HD was repeated by Ford in 1998 with the AU Falcon. For the decade leading up to it, sales were largely tied with Holden’s Commodore.

It’s easy to see parallels between HD and AU.

Both were progressive and internationally-inspired designs that were too far ahead of consumer preferences, allowing the competition to streak forward.

Like the HD, the gawky-looking AU was an own-goal against the suave if conservative VT Commodore that heralded Holden’s (sadly short-lived) renaissance era of the early millennium period.

And both, today, are enjoying a revival of interest that nobody saw coming. In fact, passion for the HD and AU alike run deep. Deservedly so, too.

1997 Holden VT Commodore.

The lesson for the upcoming HiLux, RAV4, Corolla, Navara, Pajero and others is that carmakers cannot become too complacent and arrogant when experiencing the type of success that GM-H did in its heyday.

As the 1965 HD Holden so emphatically – and disastrously ­– proves 60 years on.